Venus’ Winds Are Mysteriously Speeding Up to....
400 km/h (250 mph) in 2012. That’s nearly double the wind speeds found in a category 4 hurricane here on Earth!...See Space News Page

The Sub_Continent Expectations from Thursday 20th June till Sunday 23rd June:

1. An UAC forming around the Andaman Islands in the Bay will travel NW. Will, mostly, descend to sea level on Sunday 23rd, and BB-4 will be off the Orissa coast.
Another UAC forms off the TN coast, but merges in the trough (formed by the UAC) in the Bay.

2.The west coast trough will persist as a weak trough.The Northern end of the trough is supported by an Upper Air trough in the Sea. Some spill over showers in Saurashtra. 
Possibly, a vortex may form for a couple of days off the Karnataka coast on the weekend.Heavy rains ( 40-100 mms) in Coastal Karnataka (weekend). Variable (10-40 mms) rainfall along rest of west coastline. Average/Below average rainfall in interior Mah.and Karnataka.

3. A weak low forms in the Arabian Sea off the Oman Coast on Thursday 19th. It imminently moves inland. Some light rains in Eastern Oman.
The resultant SW winds into SE Sindh may bring light rains to SE Sindh region and corresponding coast. 

4.The Monsoon axis runs along the Himalayan foothills. Almost merging into Nepal on Friday.Heavy rains in Nepal. 
The extended eastern arm remains weak. Maybe just extending to Meghalaya by Saturday.Heavy rains in Northern Bangladesh and Meghalaya.
Almost dry and no meaningful rains in NW India and most of Pakistan. SWM remains stationary.

City specific forecasts if required.

SWM monsoon rainfall .. Till 19th June 2013..
Konkan , Ghats and some parts of Madhya Maharahtra. Pictorial composition by Rohit Aroskar....see Stat and Analysis Page 

Lake Levels of water supply to Mumbai and General Maharashtra Position..See Mumbai Page

City Forecast for Wednesday, 19th June:

Mumbai can expect cloudy skies, with sunny and bright intervals as the day progresses.
showers at times, with a few heavy.Showers amounting to around average 30 mms will be distributed during the day. Hence not very persisting showers.

Pune: Cloudy skies, with brisk Westerlies blowing. Light rains in some parts, with the odd medium shower possible. Rain amount 7-10 mms.

Surat, cloudy, but brightening bu late afternoon. A couple of showers possible, an amount less than 10 mms possible.

Kolkata: a couple of showers in the day. The odd one can be heavy in some parts. Rain amount would be around 15 mms though.

Delhi NCR: Though it will be almost calm, Sparse clouding could prevent the sun from shooting the day over 36c. No system to  precipitate any rain over NCR.


x----------------------------x------------------------------x--------------------------------x
Immiedietly on Setting, SWM throws its weight in many States of India. Severe flooding of main rivers in Uttarakhand has left many dead and marooned. 
Some Prominent Rainfall Amounts in cms in 24 hrs ended Tuesday Morning (17th June):

In Uttarakhand: Dehra Dun 37, Mukteshwar 24, Hardwar 22, Uttar Kashi (CWC) 21, Kosani 21, Haldwani 20, Nainital 18, Tharali 17, Tehri 17, Tehri (CWC) 17, Deoprayag 16, Bageshwar 16, Mussoorie 15, Roorkee 15

In UP: Saharanpur 20, Harpur 16, Narora 16, Nakur 15
In HP:Paonta Sahib 41, Kalpa 19, Renuka 15, Sangrah 11

In Haryana, Delhi and C'Garh:Chhachhrauli 27, Chhachrauli (ARG) 27, Bilaspur 27, Jagadhari 26, Delhi (Palam) 12

In MP: Gohad gets 23 cms.

In Gujarat: Khambhalia 21, Babra 18, Rajula 15, Lathi 14, Hansot (ARG) 18, Hansot 14, Pardi (ARG) 14, Balasinor 12, Halol 12, Mahesana 12

In Konkan :Matheran 27, Uran 26, Panvel 26, Karjat 23, Mumbai (Colaba) 21, Khalapur 20, Pen 19, Ambernath 19, Khed 17, Murbad 17, Ulhasnagar 16, Mumbai (Santacruz) 15
Mahableshwar 29 cms


In Kerala :Irikkur 18, Kannur 18, Piravom 14, Vadakara 12

All Model Calculations go for a toss..a fresh Voretx form unexpectedly, overnight, off the N.Konkan coast. Subsequent strengthening of the trough off the West Coast of India..
Embedded Vortex seen strongest till 700 hp level ..
Mumbai sees rain force gaining again..can raise estimate to 100-125 mms next 24 hrs

 SWM moves in to Kutch...95 mms rain in Anjar, 75 mms in Mundra, 52 mms in Gandhdham (Kutch) and 38 mms in Rapar and 32 mms in Nakhatrana...good enough begining for Kutch..Posted on Monday 17th Evening

Rainfall Figures in mms for Raigadh and Thane District as on Monday Morning 17 th june...see Mumbai Page for complete List

1. BB-3 has fizzled out on sea level, but maintains strength as an UAC.
2. The UAC in the Arabian Sea, at the head of the off shore trough, will stabilise more prominently in the South Gujarat region, and get the trough in a "vertical" position.
The UAC will move NE and cross Gujarat coast near Veraval on Sunday night.

Resultantly: On Monday 17th: Heavy rains in South Gujarat (Surat >100mms and Bharuch), South coastal Saurashtra (Veraval and East of it),  In Guj: Ahmadabad, Baroda, Surat, Bharuch, Gandhinagar, Bhavnagar and Palanpur).
Monday very heavy rains in Uttarakhand and adjoining UP and some sharp showers in adjoining NCR.

Tuesday 18th: Heavy rains in region where Guj/Raj/MP borders meet. In MP:Indore, Ujjain, Ratlam, Barwani and In Rajasthan:Kota, Udaipur and Banswara.

Wednesday 19th: Rains move towards Delhi NCR as UAC gets weaker. The trough runs from Delhi SW towards Gujarat. 

Next 3 days: West coast gets good rainfall as trough remains intact.
Rainfall for a day more in Nagpur. Monday may see showers and about 5-10 mms of rain. But sharp decrease from Tuesday, and day temperature climbing to 34/35c in East Vidharbha again.Showers continue in Western Vidharbh.

South Eastern Peninsula remains almost dry. Chennai cloudy but just a stray shower possible.

Mumbai: Rainfall decreasing from Monday. Monday will be cloudy and 3/4 showers, some heavy. Tuesday and Wednesday will see sunny intervals. Occasional showers next 3 days. Some showers will be heavy but not prolonged. Rain amount for Monday 35 mms, Tuesday and Wednesday 25-30 mms (average).
Outer townships will see some sharp longer duration showers on Monday, but decrease in rains from Tuesday. Rainfall amounts 40-50 mms on Monday slight decrease next 2 days.
Pune: On Monday, Showers up to 10 mms in some parts. Decreasing from Tuesday .

Delhi NCR: Monday: Some showers. Eastern parts can get sharp showers adjoining UP State.Average rain amount 10-15 mms.
Decrease for a day on Tuesday, with sunny intervals, and slight increase on Wednesday in rain frequency.Average rain amount for Wednesday 10/12 mms.

Surat: Heavy rains from Monday night thru Tuesday. Excessive amounts. Rains tapering off from Tuesday.

Isolated Thunder Showers on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday in Central Sindh. Nawabshah and Sukkar have a hit and miss chance, or evening showers in the vicinity.
Islamabad also gets warmer next few days as rains move away..maybe touching 40c soon.

SWM has moved in to Nepal. Heavy showers in West Nepal on Monday. Kathmandu has recieved 130 mms in June, so around half the June total. The normal June total 236 mms will be achieved. Next 3 days will be cloudy with some evening showers. Days will be around 27c and nights 19/20c.

SWM Covers all parts of India eaxcept West Rajasthan and Part of Kutch. OLR and other humidity parameters (as per IMD) do not confirm total advance in these regions...see Monsoon Advance Page.

UAC off Saurashtra coast moving NE. Heavy rains for South Gujarat (Surat and Bharuch), ujarat region (Ahmadabad and Baroda) and south coastal Saurashtra on Monday. Rains decrease in Mumbai ..BB-3 becomes UAC and is pushed NE towards Delhi....details being written for blog now,,and will be published in an hour...SWM advances into all parts except Rajasthan and Kutch..

Much Awaited Monsoon Analysis to Date  from ..None Other than Our GSB..on "Stats and Analysis" Page..Just Recieved

On Saturday Evening, Vortex Forms Off the West Coast of India near North/Central Konkan...See Current Weather Page here: 
Heavy rains lashing Central and Southern Mumbai since last nigh, with thunder /Lightening.
Scruz measured 57 mms in 21 hrs till 05.30 am IST.  ...48 mms till Saturday mid night  and 9 mms  after mid night till 05.30 am into Sunday, Vagaries measured 75 mms till Saturday mid night and 32 mms after mid night till 07.30 am Sunday,

BB-3 Current Position (In Yellow)  as on Saturday evening Redrawn on the 14th June Track Chart (Moved along "designated   Path as original  in the Thursday blog below)..

Brief Saturday, 15th June Report as on 5.30 pm for Mah:..Mumbai Page
Lakes Levels supplying Water to Mumbai City as on 14th June..See Mumbai Page

Posted on Thursday Night @ 11.00 pm IST

The axis of the Monsoon runs from SE Sindh thru Southern Rajasthan MP through Centre of BB-3 and into the Bay.The western end of the axis is "supported" by the low which normally appears in the Southern Sindh region of Pakistan (to support" the axis),some time around Mid July.
This would normally be the natural position of the axis in mid-July. 
The continuing SW winds into the UAC over Punjab have "introduced" rains in the newly formed Low over the SE Sindh region. Tyronne reports of good showers in Karachi.

Now, with BB-3 as a well marked Low, we will see this system tracking along the axis route in the next 3 days.

Saturday, very heavy rains in Vidharbha and adjoining Northern AP.Heavy rains in Western Vidharbha  Hyderabad in AP can receive heavy showers too.

Sunday and Saurashtra and Eastern Gujarat may see very heavy rains.Places may see > 125-150 mms.
Almost negligible rain in South-Eastern Peninsula


Mumbai: Friday will be cloudy with heavy showers interspersed with gaps in rainfall.Rainfall increasing on Friday night.
By Saturday morning, Mumbai may get around 60 mms.
Saturday will be overcast with intermittent showers and heavy spells. 
Increasing rains again leading to a wet Sunday.Saturday will get around 60 mms.
Sunday may well see 80-90 mms of rains.
Pune: Friday and Saturday partly cloudy with light showers in some parts. Sunday cloudy and increase in rains, maybe upto 25-30 mms on Sunday.

Surat will see an increase in rainfall from Saturday Night.Sunday i see a possibility of >100 mms.

Next 3 days for Delhi NCR will see a Thunder Shower in some parts or vicinity. Rainfall chances are more on Saturday and Sunday, with around 25 mms possible.
.
Karachi which has seen some rain from the Low, will see a decrease in rainfall from Friday itself. Generally cloudy and some rain in vicinity on Friday. 

 vagaries had put up the expected course of BB-3 (it had not formed then) in the current standing article on blog. With BB-3 now formed, we shall observe the course parametres like 200 hp winds, 700 trough and sea level "corridor" and estimate its path. Would not jump to conclusions now, and then change..but, will put up on vagaries tonite..

Synoptic Situation as on Tuesday Night (11th June)

1. The 200 hpa jet streams have become westerlies in the absolute North of  the sub continent.This indicates an easier movement of systems from the Bay to move inland without any sort of "resistance."

2. The UAC in Northern most regions of India and Pakistan are attracting SE winds interaction with SW winds. Along with the heated lands, it has brought about massive clouds and thunderstorms. Rawalpindi had a severe dust storm with rain on Tuesday evening.

3.The trough at the 700 hpa level will strengthen in the NWI and Northern India regions in the next few days. Due to resistance from 850 hpa level in Central India (the UAC), the upper air trough (700 hpa) will precipitate thunder showers  some severe, along the plains of UP, Haryana and the foothills of Himalayas till Saturday 15th June.  (SWM advance could be announced)

4.Today's newly formed UAC in the Bay will now, in all probability track W/NW and move along the Central Indian regions.From Thursday 13th June, precipitation will move westwards thru Orissa and Chattisgarh.

By Sunday 16th June, we may see precipitation in Gujarat and west coast of India (details later as we approach the dates), and move into Coastal Sindh and Karachi early next week.
Southern and interior peninsula may see a relatively "less rainfall" period till Monday 17th.

We will monitor this daily, and On Thursday, vagaries will put up another detailed forecast schedule...

Mumbai: Rainfall remaining weak till Saturday. Increase in rains from Saturday.
Delhi NCR: Some showers on Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Rainfall in 24 hrs period around 15 -20 mms.

Chennai generally cloudy.

Kolkata chances of Thundershower in some parts on Thursday.Major rainfall still evasive in Bengal.


Much Awaited SWM Toppers list as on 10th June. On Stats and Analysis Page....from Pradeep (of-course)

10th June: SWM Moves into Ahmadabad, more parts of Saurashtra and Kolkata...see Monsoon Advance Map

In a fresh development, an UAC can form in the Bay off the North Andhra/South Orissa coast by the 12th of June.
The system, may form a low, or travel W/NW as an UAC. Along the track, we can expect heavy precipitation into Orissa and later into Chattisgarh, East Vid, MP and Southern UP. Delhi and North Rajasthan from 13th through 17th June.

West coast can expect "sympathy" rains if the UAC is strong enough.
We shall monitor the progress as the UAC forms. 

Mumbai on Monday night will get frequent showers, some heavy. Tuesday will see several showers, some of prolonged duration and heavy.

The Elongated Vortex off the Northern region of the West Coast of India. This vortex, at 700 hpa, has now elongated till South Gujarat Coast. Map of 8.30 am Monday...Predicted an afternoon let up in Mumbai Rains as vortex not very deep ..

June 10th Last Day for Vagaries' June Contest....See June Contest Page for Details

Outlook for Monday, 10th June..
Mumbai: Cloudy skies, with intermittent showers.Few heavy showers in some parts of City. Rain Amount (average): 45-55 mms.
Rainfall decreasing on Tuesday.

Pune: Cloudy and cool day. Some showers in parts of city. Rain Amount 7-10 mms.

Delhi NCR: Hot day, maximum around 42c. Thundery developments may be far South of NCR in Rajasthan. Some Dust Storms may drift towards the Southern Parts.
Inter action of Easterlies from the Bay and SW winds from the Arabian Sea, could result in pre Monsoon Showers in Delhi NCR from 14th June.

Chennai: Warm humid and partly cloudy. Maximum at 37c. Thunder clouds may drift in some parts of city by evening.